Curse

Tarkin · May 25, 2008, 11:28 AM // 11:28

Quote:

Originally Posted by MoriaOrc

These are close enough to 50-55% (albeit on the unlucky side). I notice that the "second 100" keys are in fact exactly 50/50.

Coincidence, i get the 52% and 55% bonus few time afther the 100th key, if statisc perfect i must have something like 104 retain, 96 lost...

Quote:

Originally Posted by MoriaOrc

I'm sure everyone has their own superstitions about retentions (and other chance things). Some of them might even be right. However, especially when you're near 50% chance of either outcome, you're likely to get the occasional long streak (4+) on both sides.

True about 50% retention, but i talking about extrems rows of luck in 30% retention or unluck in retention 80%, this part of my original post is a awnser direct to OP.

MoriaOrc · May 25, 2008, 08:20 PM // 20:20

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tarkin

Coincidence, i get the 52% and 55% bonus few time afther the 100th key, if statisc perfect i must have something like 104 retain, 96 lost...

Statistics are rarely perfect. Yours are fairly close (within 4 keys/100 of what "perfect" should be). Someone else will get lucky and retain 54 keys of 100 w/ a 50% rate.

Quote:

True about 50% retention, but i talking about extrems rows of luck in 30% retention or unluck in retention 80%, this part of my original post is a awnser direct to OP.

Like I said, some superstitions might even be right. Who knows, maybe the GW Random Number Generator favors repeats or low movement from the previous value for some reason.

Lord High Pwner · May 25, 2008, 08:30 PM // 20:30

Lockpicks are nearly spot as stated above. But i would say 100 picks still doesnt establish a decent baseline. Im not arguing against you but the more chests you log if you start looking at numbers in 1000's you'll see how close they really are. Back on topic dont open picks if you feel you're being cheated. You wouldnt gas your car up at a station you suspect added water would you?

ValaOfTheFens · May 25, 2008, 08:38 PM // 20:38

I used 15 picks in a CoF run and only retained 1.

Which was fine because my Unlucky is going up fast.

Sir Owns Alot EP · May 25, 2008, 09:03 PM // 21:03

Its all about luck.

In my year of playing GW, I've probably used around two hundred lockpicks, retained, like, three maybe?

BuD · May 25, 2008, 09:20 PM // 21:20

I had a run of 18 chests with 2 Lock Picks in NM my retention rate is 65%.

Another run gave me 39 chests with 8 Lock Picks same place NM.

Each key has your % retention rate, its all luck after that.

Midnight Harmony · May 25, 2008, 09:29 PM // 21:29

Sometimes I retain a lockpick 2 or 3 times, and other times they always break. It's all down to luck.